In a recent development, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opted to postpone its verdict on the array of spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals. As the SEC plays coy, deferring its decision on the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin prices find a sharp pullback to the $25k mark.
The U.S. dollar’s diminishing dominance in international reserves cast ripples across global markets. As nations pivot, seeking diversified assets and hedging against fiat uncertainties, there’s a digital contender emerging from the shadows: Bitcoin.
Moreover, the Bitcoin on-chain data offers a treasure trove of insights for the discerning, from exchange balances that hint at investor sentiment to the subtle shifts in hodler behavior.
But can the dollar decline truly herald a bull run for Bitcoin? Dive with us into a comprehensive analysis, where we decode the intricate Bitcoin price movement, investor sentiments, and the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Bitcoin dips to $25k as the SEC pauses on the ETF decision, highlighting the crypto’s sensitivity to regulatory moves.
As the U.S. dollar’s global stronghold loosens, Bitcoin might likely signal its potential rise as a global financial contender.
Amidst market turbulence, on-chain metrics reveal a bullish sentiment with ‘hodlers’ betting big on the future of Bitcoin.
Dark Clouds Loom as SEC Delays Bitcoin ETF Decision
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin did find a bullish spark with the significant ruling came from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. The court opined that the SEC’s rationale behind rejecting certain bitcoin ETF applications appeared to lack solid grounding.
However, the crypto market responded swiftly to the news of the SEC pushing the Bitcoin ETF decision further, with Bitcoin’s value declining. The digital currency’s price dipped by 4.1%, settling at $26,100 within the last day.
Notable financial giants such as BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise, and Valkyrie Digital Assets are among those awaiting the SEC’s decision.
As for the new timelines, Wise Origin, Galaxy, and WisdomTree can expect a decision by October 17. Meanwhile, Valkyrie’s verdict is slated for October 19, and Bitwise’s fate will be known by October 16.
If the SEC had given the green light to the BTC ETF, it could have paved the way for a surge in institutional investments, potentially bolstering Bitcoin’s price and mainstream acceptance. Moreover, an approved ETF would have provided retail investors with a more regulated and safer avenue to invest in Bitcoin, possibly leading to a broader adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Back To $25K, Bears Control Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster
Today’s Bitcoin (BTC) price is $25,773, reversing from the 50-day EMA to completing an evening start pattern. With a 7% fall within three days, the BTC price loses the overnight gains of Grayscale victory against the SEC.
The sharp bearish turnaround comes as the retest of the broken support trendline and may continue a post-retest bearish run below $25K.
The previous sideways trend in Bitcoin price around $25K were choppy movements within shorter timeframes displaying a brawl between bulls and bears. A potential hold-off is possible again at the $25K demand belt, but the increased momentum warns of a downtrend.
With delayed reversal chances in Bitcoin, the buyers can find a bullish turnaround at $22K or $20K support levels.
Exchange Balance – A Closer Examination:
The total balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has experienced a subtle rise, now standing at 2,272,650.67 BTC. This is a growth of approximately 0.447% since 25 August 2023. Such a slight increase might seem insignificant at first glance, but in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, even minor shifts can indicate broader market trends.
The world is witnessing a gradual decline in the dominance of traditional reserve currencies like the U.S. dollar in international reserves.
Maria Zakharova, the Spokeswoman of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the U.S. dollar’s share of international reserves has dropped below 60%. That’s a big drop from its 72% share in 2002. The euro’s share has also fallen 19% from its 28% position in 2008.
With the share of the U.S. dollar dropping below 60% and the rise of alternative currencies, there’s a clear trend of diversification in global financial strategies. This mirrors the behavior in the crypto realm, where even subtle shifts in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges can signal broader market sentiments and strategic diversifications.
Diversification Away from Traditional Assets:
If countries diversify from the U.S. dollar in their international reserves, they might look for alternative assets to store value. As a decentralized and non-sovereign asset, Bitcoin could be a hedge against traditional fiat currency fluctuations. This could drive demand and lead to a bull run.
Loss of Confidence in Fiat:
A decreasing reliance on the U.S. dollar might indicate a broader loss of confidence in fiat currencies. If this sentiment becomes widespread, it could drive investors to “hard assets” like gold or decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin, further fueling a potential bull run.
Exchange Net Position Change
A metric that stands as a testament to the transformation in the “Total balance of Bitcoin on all exchanges” is the “Exchange Net Position Change.”
The latest data shows a sharp decline in Bitcoin leaving exchanges, reaching a three-month low of -20,648 BTC. This negative figure suggests that more people are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges than depositing it, indicating that investors are becoming more cautious.
Bitcoin HODLers: A Wall of Strength
The Hodler Net Position Change metric provides insights into the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. The Hodler Net Position Change has risen to 54,832.34 BTC from 41,492.7 BTC last week, marking an increase of 32.15%.
This metric is a testament to the faith long-term investors have in Bitcoin. Their continued accumulation suggests a belief in Bitcoin’s future potential and often aligns with a bullish market sentiment.
Comprehensive On-Chain Exchange Metrics
Exchange Inflow Volume: The recent data shows a 13.086% decrease, bringing the inflow to 33,839.44 BTC. This means that fewer investors are moving their Bitcoin into exchanges. This could be because they’re expecting a bullish market trend or they’re choosing to hold their assets in uncertain market conditions.
Exchange Deposits: With a count of 54,286, there’s an 8.512% drop in deposits. This decline could signify investors’ hesitancy in trading or a strategic move to diversify holdings across multiple platforms or wallets.
Exchange Outflow Volume: The amount of Bitcoin leaving exchanges is 28,849.85 BTC, which is a tiny decrease of 0.441%. This stability suggests that while some investors sell, a big portion is holding onto their assets, maybe waiting for better market conditions.
Exchange Withdrawals: The number of people withdrawing money from their accounts has decreased slightly to 65,336. This could mean that investors are consolidating their investments, or there could be less trading activity today.
Bitcoin’s recent price movements show that investors are both cautious and hopeful. While fewer people are selling Bitcoin, more individuals are buying it. This could mean that investors are waiting for the right time to sell or that they believe Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise.
On the other hand, more Bitcoin is being taken out of exchanges, which means that many people are choosing to hold onto their assets, possibly because they expect the price to go up in the future.
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