In 2022, the chances of Ethereum (ETH) surpassing Bitcoin to become the biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization are pretty slim according to Messari’s Ryan Selkis. The CEO and founder of the leading on-chain data monitoring firm stated that the probability of Ethereum “flippening” Bitcoin in 2022 was “maybe 20%”.
Explaining his views on the matter in Messari’s most recent Crypto thesis report for 2022, Selkis is quoted saying ;
I’d put the probability of a ‘flippening’ next year at maybe 20%, and not because ETH is money, no matter what Sotheby’s says.” He asserted, alluding to the auction platform’s recent addition of Ether to its payment options.
A 20% chance is still a chance, but…
While Selkis has pinned his stake on this figure for several reasons which he outlines, he does not completely rule out the “flippening” in 2022. According to , Bitcoin may continue to have the biggest capitalization in the cryptocurrency market as it is superior to Ethereum when it comes to being “money.”
He however entertains the idea that Ethereum may have a chance at being able to perform the herculean feat “if” the cryptocurrency market comes to value the Ethereum network more highly than Bitcoin for its strength of being the “world’s most unique user-owned computing platform.”
Selkis considers the possibility of this playing out to be slim as he agrees with two thoughts shared by the founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, who stated that: Ethereum could not be both the best virtual computer and the best money at the same time; and that it was likely that Bitcoin the largest monetary network of the crypto world would be bigger than its largest virtual computer.
This stance is in contrast with the expectations of some other analysts. According to Goldman Sachs’ assessment, the price of Ether is likely to continue growing at a faster rate than Bitcoin just like it has done this year. The bank set a price target of $8,000 per Ether within the next few months and expects it to close the distance between itself and Bitcoin even as Ethereum moves to being a proof-of-stake (PoS) network.
The chances of Ether getting flipped is even higher
This notwithstanding, Selkis has pointed out that while Ether was looking to flip Bitcoin, it had to also watch its back or it may end up being flipped by other PoS blockchain networks. Selkis even argues that Ethereum is “a more assailable target than Bitcoin” as the performance of other Layer 1 computing platforms has shown. He notes that these “Ethereum killers” have already been siphoning value from Ethereum, but the major competitions for Bitcoins’ monetary network dominance have nothing on the pioneer cryptocurrency.
There’s really no credible flippening competition for Bitcoin aside from Ethereum, but ETH has to watch its back, too,” the report noted. “Bitcoin dominance slid from 71% to 42% this year. Bad. But ETH’s smart contract platform dominance also slid from 80% to 60%, and might bleed additional value to its new Layer 2 rollup “allies” that come to market in early 2022.
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