Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Surge 500% If This Historical Price Movement Repeats

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Bitcoin, presently trading at $29,735, is poised for a potential 500% price growth cycle, according to several experts, as the next halving event approaches. The halving cycles, occurring every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined, have historically had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s value. During these events, the block reward miners receive is cut in half, creating scarcity-driven value increases for the cryptocurrency.

Examining past halving cycles reveals substantial price increases after each event. For example, Bitcoin’s price surged by a staggering 2,830% after the first halving in 2012. In subsequent halvings—2013, 2015, 2019, and 2020—the price gains were 566%, 6,400%, 99%, and 487%, respectively.

The Reserve Risk Metric: A Signal for Parabolic Growth

The Reserve Risk metric, a key indicator that has consistently signaled parabolic price moves for Bitcoin, is now back above 0, which could indicate another significant price increase is imminent.

Since its November 2021 all-time high, Bitcoin has seen its strongest quarterly returns, with an 80% gain since the beginning of this year, making it the best-performing asset of 2023 so far.

On-chain analytics provider Glassnode noted the stark contrast between Bitcoin’s performance in 2022 and 2023, suggesting a favorable regime shift is underway. Although the firm did mention the recent correlation between BTC and gold prices amid another U.S. banking crisis, it also explored the possibility of a return to a full bull market.

A Solid Cost Basis Foundation

Glassnode reported that a large amount of BTC has recently returned to profit. In 2023, a total of 6.2 million BTC, representing nearly a third of the supply, have returned to profit, indicating a strong cost basis foundation below the $30,000 mark.

Though Bitcoin’s price doesn’t move in a straight line, corrections are expected, whether in a bull market or not. After hitting resistance at the $30,000 level, Bitcoin has dropped below $30,000 to trade at $29,464. However, it still boasts a 9% gain over the past month. With support currently around $28,000, this level may be revisited in the coming week.